Africa
Sudan — SAF vs. RSF civil war
Baseline: The fight between Sudan’s Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) remains entrenched across Khartoum’s corridors, Darfur and Kordofan. RSF elements hold extensive ground in the west while SAF retains key eastern hubs and segments of central transit routes, leaving large civilian populations trapped between shifting lines.
Urban combat, shelling around contested towns, and militia predation continue to drive displacement and strain coping capacities. Humanitarian organizations report escalating needs, especially where markets have collapsed and essential services have failed.
Constraints: Access is impeded by active fronts, mined roads, and damaged bridges, with bureaucratic restrictions further slowing convoys. Seasonal flooding and degraded infrastructure undermine ground movement and complicate cold-chain and medical referrals.
Ceasefire initiatives lack monitoring and enforcement, and local armed groups operate with limited command cohesion. Aid pipelines remain exposed to looting and ad-hoc checkpoints, curtailing regular deliveries.
Watch: The first ICC conviction linked to Darfur atrocities may increase pressure for accountability and could provoke retaliatory violence by hard-line actors. Any renewed RSF thrust toward central nodes—or SAF riposte in Darfur—would likely trigger new displacement waves and protection crises.
Indicators to track include corridor openings, fuel availability for hospitals, and public signals from external backers regarding sanctions or materiel flows.
DR Congo — M23 rebellion in the east
Baseline: The M23 movement and allied groups retain leverage around North and South Kivu, with intermittent clashes along supply corridors near Goma and other urban fringes. Kinshasa accuses Rwanda of backing M23, allegations Kigali denies, while front lines remain fluid.
Political tracks are under strain after a planned economic framework between Congo and Rwanda stalled, complicating broader stabilization efforts tied to security commitments and withdrawals.
Constraints: Mountainous terrain, mined approaches, and damaged bridges constrain logistics for combatants and aid actors alike. Peacekeepers face mandate and posture limitations amid indirect fire near populated areas.
Ceasefire adherence is uneven, with splinter factions complicating command and control. Displacement sites struggle with overcrowding, food gaps, and protection risks.
Watch: Failure to revive talks could spur fresh M23 pushes around Goma’s northern and western arcs or along routes toward South Kivu. Regional tensions may spike if cross-border incidents or troop presence disputes intensify.
Key signals: verified withdrawals and cantonment steps, renewed firing near urban perimeters, and announcements on mediated dialogue timelines.
Somalia — al-Shabaab insurgency
Baseline: Al-Shabaab sustains a campaign of ambushes, IEDs and raids across central and southern regions, probing security gaps along key roads and near forward operating bases. Government-aligned forces hold towns and strategic junctions but face persistent rural threats.
Communities adjacent to contested corridors report periodic evacuations and market disruptions. International partners continue to support training, ISR and limited strike enablers as transition planning advances slowly.
Constraints: Funding shortfalls are forcing cuts to emergency food assistance, deepening needs in conflict-affected districts. Insecurity, checkpoint taxation and road degradation impede aid deliveries and commercial flows.
Rains and flooding isolate communities and degrade airstrips, while intimidation restricts local governance and market activity. Fragmented control blunts ceasefire verification.
Watch: Expect continued complex attacks on bases and government targets, including in areas previously cleared. Any shifts in external support or command realignments could alter tempo along major highways.
Monitor attack frequency on supply routes, access constraints for food pipelines through the lean season, and displacement spikes in hard-to-reach districts.
Middle East
Gaza — Israel–Hamas war
Baseline: On the war’s anniversary, indirect talks remain focused on a phased framework linking hostage releases to Israeli withdrawals and security guarantees. Both sides signal interest but dispute sequencing, while strikes and raids continue at varying intensity.
Civilian conditions remain dire amid rubble, UXO and intermittent access through crossings. Health services run on limited fuel, and displacement sites face overcrowding and disease risks.
Constraints: Negotiations hinge on verification, third-party guarantees and timing of troop movements. Urban destruction and damaged arteries slow aid deliveries, with inspection regimes adding delays.
Regional spillovers, airspace deconfliction and maritime security concerns complicate military calculus and humanitarian planning. Governance arrangements for a transitional phase remain unsettled.
Watch: Sticking points include security control of key districts and the pace of withdrawals after initial hostage releases. A breakdown could trigger renewed high-tempo strikes; progress would require robust monitoring and enforcement.
Track mediator statements, corridor throughput, and public lists related to prisoner-hostage exchanges as leading indicators.
Lebanon–Israel border — Hezbollah/IDF exchanges
Baseline: Cross-border fire—including drones, artillery and anti-tank strikes—continues at low to moderate tempo, closely tracking shifts in Gaza. Civilians face prolonged displacement and intermittent service disruptions in southern Lebanon and Israel’s north.
Periodic claims of deeper strikes and counterstrikes sustain risk of escalation. UNIFIL maintains presence under a mandate recently renewed with a defined drawdown horizon, but on-the-ground deterrence remains limited.
Constraints: UNIFIL monitoring and patrols are constrained by security conditions and damaged roads. Gray-zone incidents complicate attribution and raise miscalculation risks, particularly at night or in poor visibility.
Local authorities struggle to restore utilities under the threat of renewed fire, and humanitarian actors face access restrictions during flare-ups.
Watch: Escalation indicators include sustained deep-strike patterns, mobilization notices, and deliberate targeting of infrastructure beyond the border strip. Diplomatic space will be influenced by any movement in Gaza talks.
Monitor displacement trends, air defense alerts, and political messaging about Hezbollah disarmament and LAF posture.
Yemen/Red Sea — Houthi maritime attacks
Baseline: The Houthi movement continues long-range drone and missile activity against shipping and regional adversaries, prompting escorts and retaliatory strikes. Routes through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden face periodic disruption and insurance spikes.
A fatality was confirmed after an attack on a Dutch-operated cargo vessel in the Gulf of Aden, underscoring persistent crew risks despite convoying and layered defenses.
Constraints: Naval and air defenses reduce but cannot eliminate the threat; sea state and weather influence small-boat harassment and UAV launch reliability. Port damage and access restrictions in Yemen constrain humanitarian operations and repairs.
Maritime domain awareness depends on ISR coverage and multinational coordination, which vary by corridor and political will.
Watch: A mass-casualty incident or a sinking in congested lanes would likely prompt intensified coalition action. Expanded target sets toward the Bab el-Mandeb or Gulf of Aden would broaden operational risk for commercial fleets.
Monitor insurer advisories, coalition statements on strikes against launch infrastructure, and claims of newly targeted coordinates.
Europe and Caucasus
Ukraine — multi-front war with Russia
Baseline: Russia has intensified long-range strikes against energy and industrial nodes ahead of winter, damaging gas and power infrastructure. Kyiv is seeking to boost gas imports and harden the grid while maintaining air defense along active fronts.
Ground fighting persists along Donetsk and other sectors, with incremental moves and constant indirect fire. Rear-area attacks continue to cause outages, fires and disruptions to rail and depot networks.
Constraints: Mixed salvos of drones, glide bombs and cruise missiles strain interceptor stocks and repair crews. Mine belts and cratered roads slow mechanized maneuvers and complicate casualty evacuation.
Energy repairs compete with military priorities, and civilian resilience is pressured by rolling interruptions in power and heating.
Watch: Repeated strikes on gas storage, transformer yards and rail nodes will shape winter risk. Western transfers of air defense and long-range strike capabilities remain key variables for deterrence and interdiction.
Indicators include import arrangements for gas and fuel, shifts in Ukrainian UAV raids on Russian refineries, and localized counterattacks along contested lines.
Armenia–Azerbaijan — fragile normalization track
Baseline: After the 2023 Karabakh exodus, Yerevan and Baku moved toward a treaty text but progress remains halting. Political pressures on both sides, border incidents and unresolved demarcation issues continue to complicate finalization.
External mediators have floated formats and venues, yet technical files—prisoners, transit and monitoring—still require sequencing and verification to take hold on the ground.
Constraints: Border demarcation involves disputed tracts and enclaves with thin observation. Domestic opposition and constitutional questions limit maneuvering room for concessions.
Overlapping great-power interests in transit corridors and energy raise the cost of missteps, while confidence-building measures remain sparse.
Watch: Signals to monitor include formal scheduling of a signing venue, deployment of third-party monitors, and reductions in reported violations. A single fatal incident could rapidly stall the track.
Also watch for public debate in Armenia on legal amendments tied to a prospective deal and statements from Azerbaijan on transit modalities.
Kosovo–Serbia — tensions in the north
Baseline: Northern Kosovo remains tense around municipal buildings, crossings and the Ibar bridge area, with periodic standoffs testing KFOR’s buffer role. Political moves in Pristina have drawn criticism from partners, reflecting concerns over stability and dialogue fatigue.
Communities report entrenched mistrust and sporadic low-level violence, with continued friction over policing, license plates and administrative control in Serb-majority areas.
Constraints: Parallel structures and protest dynamics complicate day-to-day governance and impede freedom of movement. Media and NGO access can narrow quickly during street-level escalations.
De-escalation arrangements remain fragile and reversible, while EU-facilitated dialogue struggles to produce durable compromises.
Watch: Triggers include attempts to reassert control over municipal facilities, changes in special police deployments, or incidents at key bridges and crossing points. KFOR posture adjustments would be a notable signal.
Monitor EU conditionality, U.S. messaging and any renewed suspension or re-sequencing of dialogue tracks.
Asia Pacific
South China Sea — Philippines–China standoff
Baseline: Manila is challenging Beijing’s “nature reserve” designation and increased presence around Scarborough Shoal, arguing it risks a repeat of earlier militarization seen at Mischief Reef. Encounters at Second Thomas Shoal during resupply to the grounded BRP Sierra Madre remain tense.
The 2016 arbitral ruling underpins the Philippines’ legal position, though China rejects it. Regional partners are watching closely as information operations and maritime signaling intensify.
Constraints: Close-quarter maneuvers, water-cannoning and ramming risks complicate de-escalation at sea. Weather and sea state limit small-boat operations and aerial surveillance cycles.
Diplomatic protests and hotline use provide some guardrails but have not curbed tactical friction. Fisherfolk report persistent access restrictions near the shoal.
Watch: Indicators include barriers within the lagoon, anchored platforms, and evidence of dredging or permanent fixtures. Expanded joint patrols with partners could enhance ISR but also sharpen encounters.
Track public notices from coast guards, satellite imagery cues of construction, and cyber/information campaigns targeting Manila’s alliances.
Taiwan Strait — PLA activity vs. Taiwan defenses
Baseline: Taiwan reports routine PLA sorties and maritime patrols around the island and outlying islands in the lead-up to its Oct. 10 National Day. Taipei stresses readiness as U.S.–Taiwan defense discussions intensify in Washington.
Public statements by senior officials highlight concern over deterrence and spending needs, while Beijing maintains pressure with near-daily incursions and messaging flights.
Constraints: Weather, sea state and maintenance cycles shape operational tempo on both sides. Sustained alert status taxes interceptor inventories and aircrew availability, while civil aviation requires careful deconfliction.
Misreads of flight profiles or drone activity could prompt rapid escalation, particularly around the median line and chokepoints.
Watch: Signals include mass sorties across the median line, carrier activity near key straits, and bomber circuits around the island. Policy cues from Washington on defense spending and posture will influence risk perceptions.
Monitor air defense advisories, NOTAMs and open-source tracking of carrier Fujian movements.
Myanmar — nationwide anti-junta conflict
Baseline: Resistance coalitions and ethnic armed groups hold swathes of territory in the north and along border belts, while the junta leans on airpower and artillery to offset manpower constraints. Urban sabotage cells and targeted attacks persist in government-held areas.
Civil society groups are pursuing legal avenues related to data sharing and repression, as rights reports continue to document abuses and forced displacement in multiple theaters.
Constraints: Access is limited by front lines, airspace hazards and communications blackouts, with permissions at border crossings tightly controlled. Terrain and monsoon damage complicate road and river logistics for both sides and for aid agencies.
Humanitarian operations face funding gaps and security incidents, forcing intermittent pauses and rerouting to reach isolated communities.
Watch: Renewed offensives around logistics hubs in northern Shan and Sagaing could shift frontline geometry. External diplomatic or legal developments may influence command cohesion and defections.
Indicators include reported strikes on air bases, captured depots, and litigation outcomes tied to telecom data handovers.
Americas
Haiti — gangs vs. state, international mission
Baseline: Armed groups retain control over swathes of Port-au-Prince and key arteries, while the U.N. approved an expansion of the multinational security mission to bolster overstretched Haitian police. Planning focuses on securing ports, fuel depots and major road junctions.
Humanitarian needs remain acute as violence disrupts services and supply chains. Authorities and partners are calibrating mandate, force composition and oversight to avoid past mission pitfalls.
Constraints: Urban density, barricades and IED threats complicate block-to-block operations. Public skepticism—rooted in prior abuses and cholera memories—requires transparent accountability and community engagement.
Funding, logistics and rules of engagement will determine early impact. Predictable humanitarian windows are needed to scale assistance and restore basic services.
Watch: Key indicators include deployment timelines, command relationships with Haitian institutions, and the first operations in high-violence zones. Gang countermoves—kidnappings or attacks on police stations—are likely probes of the mission’s resolve.
Track donor announcements, base setup activity, and convoy security arrangements on primary corridors.
Mexico — cartel fragmentation and violence
Baseline: Rival factions continue to contest trafficking corridors and local economies across multiple states, with Guerrero again in focus after authorities found a missing priest slain amid heightened threats to clergy and civic leaders. Federal operations and financial sanctions target cartel networks and precursor supply chains.
Public discourse is shaped by scrutiny of U.S.–Mexico cooperation and covert counter-cartel efforts, even as communities face persistent extortion, blockades and targeted killings.
Constraints: Corruption, terrain and capacity gaps limit sustained territorial control by security forces. Illicit finance, weapons flows and synthetic drug profits sustain armed group resilience and enable rapid regeneration after leadership losses.
Independent media and civil society actors face intimidation, narrowing reporting and accountability. Local justice systems struggle to deliver timely prosecutions.
Watch: Indicators include leadership strikes, cartel realignments in Sinaloa/Jalisco corridors, and federal deployments to protect highways, ports and fuel infrastructure. U.S. sanctions and joint actions on precursors may shift violence patterns.
Monitor attacks on journalists and clergy as pressure signals, alongside changes in interdiction posture and asset freezes.
Colombia — government vs. ELN and other armed groups
Baseline: Talks with the ELN remain suspended after earlier attacks, though officials keep the door ajar for renewed dialogue if conditions change. Other armed actors have expanded activities in peripheral regions, exploiting gaps in state presence.
“Total peace” efforts proceed selectively with factions willing to demobilize, while communities in border and coca-growing areas face extortion, mobility restrictions and intermittent clashes.
Constraints: Dense terrain, limited infrastructure and overlapping jurisdictions complicate security operations and development programs. Landmines and roadblocks restrict humanitarian access and market recovery.
Budget and political bandwidth limit simultaneous dialogues and enforcement, particularly in remote departments with weak services.
Watch: Signs of a revived ELN process include verifiable ceasefire mechanisms, concentration areas and a tapering of attacks in hot spots like Catatumbo and Arauca. Factional splits could trigger localized surges in violence.
Track funding for alternative development and crop-substitution, along with municipal security trends around election cycles.
