Africa
Sudan — SAF vs. RSF civil war
Baseline: A civil war began on 15 April 2023 between two rival factions of the military government of Sudan. The conflict involves the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti, who also leads the broader Janjaweed coalition.
Several smaller armed groups have also taken part. Fighting has been concentrated in the capital, Khartoum, where the conflict began with large-scale battles, and in the Darfur region. Many civilians in Darfur have been reported dead as part of the Masalit massacres, which have been described as ethnic cleansing or genocide. Source
Constraints: Security conditions are shaped by reports of drone.
Logistics and movement remain affected by port. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Watch: Watch for movement on truce, talks, and negotiation.
Watch for capability shifts involving drone. Watch for strikes or incidents affecting port.
DR Congo — M23 rebellion around Goma
Baseline: The Kivu conflict is an umbrella term for a series of protracted armed conflicts in the North Kivu and South Kivu provinces in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo which have occurred since the end of the Second Congo War. Including neighboring Ituri province, there are more than 120 different armed groups active in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
Currently, some of the most active rebel groups include the Allied Democratic Forces, the Cooperative for the Development of the Congo, the March 23 Movement, and many local Mai Mai militias. In addition to armed groups and the governmental FARDC troops, a number of national, regional and international forces have intervened militarily in the conflict, including the United Nations force known as MONUSCO, the militaries of Uganda and Burundi, and a force from the East African Community known as the East African Community Regional Force. The Kivu region is thus regarded as a key geopolitical arena, where local armed groups intersect with broader regional rivalries and international strategic interests. Source
Constraints: Logistics and movement remain affected by port.
Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Watch: Watch for deconflicted aid openings related to humanitarian.
Watch for movement on talks. Watch for strikes or incidents affecting port.
Somalia — al-Shabaab insurgency
Baseline: Neutral context on Somalia — al-Shabaab insurgency outlines principal actors, locations, and recent developments for reference.
The summary favors concise baselines suitable for a daily brief and avoids speculative framing to keep focus on operational dynamics. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds. Source
Constraints: Logistics and movement remain affected by road.
Security conditions are shaped by reports of strike. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Watch: Watch for deconflicted aid openings related to humanitarian.
Watch for maritime measures including houthi. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Middle East
Gaza — Israel–Hamas war
Baseline: The Gaza war is an armed conflict in the Gaza Strip and Israel, fought as part of the unresolved Israeli–Palestinian and Gaza–Israel conflicts. The war began on 7 October 2023, when Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups launched a surprise attack on Israel, in which 1,195 Israelis and foreign nationals, including 815 civilians, were killed.
251 were taken hostage with the stated goal of forcing Israel to release Palestinian prisoners. Since the start of the Israeli offensive that followed, over 68,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed, almost half of them women and children, and more than 170,000 injured. A study in The Lancet estimated that traumatic injury deaths were undercounted by June 2024, while noting a potentially even larger death toll when "indirect" deaths are included. Source
Constraints: Security conditions are shaped by reports of strike and drone.
Logistics and movement remain affected by port. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Watch: Watch for movement on ceasefire, truce, and deal.
Watch for capability shifts involving drone. Watch for strikes or incidents affecting port.
Lebanon–Israel border — Hezbollah/IDF exchanges
Baseline: The Israeli–Lebanese conflict, or the South Lebanon conflict, is a long-running conflict involving Israel, Lebanon-based paramilitary groups, and sometimes Syria. The conflict peaked during the Lebanese Civil War.
In response to Palestinian attacks from Lebanon, Israel invaded the country in 1978 and again in 1982. After this it occupied southern Lebanon until 2000, while fighting a guerrilla conflict against Shia paramilitaries. After Israel's withdrawal, Hezbollah attacks sparked the 2006 Lebanon War. Source
Constraints: Security conditions are shaped by reports of strike, mine, and missile.
Logistics and movement remain affected by border and port. Maritime activity reflects risks linked to sea.
Watch: Watch for movement on truce and ceasefire.
Watch for strikes or incidents affecting border and port. Watch for capability shifts involving missile.
Yemen/Red Sea — Houthi maritime threat
Baseline: The Yemeni civil war is an ongoing multilateral civil war that began in late 2014 mainly between the Rashad al-Alimi-led Presidential Leadership Council and the Mahdi al-Mashat-led Supreme Political Council, along with their supporters and allies. Both claim to constitute the official government of Yemen.
Overview continues for Yemen/Red Sea — Houthi maritime threat. Source
Constraints: Maritime activity reflects risks linked to ship, sea, red sea, maritime, and navy.
Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Watch: Watch for maritime measures including houthi, red sea, and shipping.
Watch for movement on ceasefire. Watch for strikes or incidents affecting airfield.
Europe and Caucasus
Ukraine — multi-front war with Russia
Baseline: The Russo-Ukrainian war began in February 2014 and is ongoing. Following Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity, Russia occupied and annexed Crimea from Ukraine.
It then supported Russian paramilitaries who began a war in the eastern Donbas region against Ukraine's military. In 2018, Ukraine declared the region to be occupied by Russia. The first eight years of conflict also included naval incidents and cyberwarfare. Source
Constraints: Administrative and legal processes continue around sanction.
Logistics and movement remain affected by port. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Watch: Watch for movement on deal.
Watch for strikes or incidents affecting port. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Armenia–Azerbaijan — normalization track
Baseline: The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians until 2023, and seven surrounding districts, inhabited mostly by Azerbaijanis until their expulsion during the 1990s. The Nagorno-Karabakh region was entirely claimed by and partially controlled by the breakaway Republic of Artsakh, but was recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan gradually re-established control over Nagorno-Karabakh region and the seven surrounding districts. Source
Constraints: Logistics and movement remain affected by corridor.
Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Watch: Watch for movement on talks and deal.
Watch for deconflicted aid openings related to corridor. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Kosovo–Serbia — northern municipalities tension
Baseline: North Kosovo Crisis is an ongoing conflict that began on 31 July 2022, tensions between Kosovo and Serbia heightened due to the expiration of the eleven-year validity period of documents for cars on 1 August 2022, between the government of Kosovo and the Serbs in North Kosovo. Kosovo, which declared independence in 2008, signed an agreement with Serbia in 2011 that determined the use of license plates in North Kosovo.
This agreement was supposed to change license plates from the ones that were issued by Serbia to neutral ones. The agreement for the change was extended in 2016 and expired in 2021, which led to a crisis in 2021 that ended with an agreement to terminate the ban of Kosovo-issued license plates in Serbia. Source
Constraints: Logistics and movement remain affected by aid and supply.
Security conditions are shaped by reports of raid. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Watch: Watch for deconflicted aid openings related to aid.
Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Asia Pacific
South China Sea — Philippines–China standoff
Baseline: The South China Sea is a marginal sea of the Western Pacific Ocean. It is bounded in the north by South China, in the west by the Indochinese Peninsula, in the east by the islands of Taiwan and northwestern Philippines, and in the south by Borneo, eastern Sumatra and the Bangka Belitung Islands, encompassing an area of around 3,500,000 km2 (1,400,000 sq mi).
It communicates with the East China Sea via the Taiwan Strait, the Philippine Sea via the Luzon Strait, the Sulu Sea via the straits around Palawan, the Java Sea via the Karimata and Bangka Straits and directly with Gulf of Thailand. The Gulf of Tonkin is part of the South China Sea. Source
Constraints: Maritime activity reflects risks linked to sea, ship, and vessel.
Logistics and movement remain affected by port. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Watch: Watch for strikes or incidents affecting port.
Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Taiwan Strait — PLA activity vs. Taiwan defenses
Baseline: The Taiwan Strait is a 180-kilometer-wide strait separating the island of Taiwan and the Asian continent. The strait is part of the South China Sea and connects to the East China Sea to the north.
The narrowest part is 130 km wide. Source
Constraints: Maritime activity reflects risks linked to vessel.
Logistics and movement remain affected by port. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Watch: Watch for maritime measures including naval.
Watch for strikes or incidents affecting port. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Myanmar — nationwide anti-junta conflict
Baseline: The Myanmar civil war is an ongoing civil war in Myanmar since 2021. It began following Myanmar's long-running insurgencies, which escalated significantly in response to the 2021 coup d'état and the subsequent violent crackdown on anti-coup protests.
The exiled National Unity Government (NUG) and major ethnic armed organisations repudiated the 2008 Constitution and called instead for a democratic federal state. Besides engaging this alliance, the ruling government of the State Administration Council (SAC) also contends with other anti-SAC forces in areas under its control. The insurgents are apportioned into hundreds of armed groups scattered across the country. Source
Constraints: Logistics and movement remain affected by aid and road.
Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Watch: Watch for deconflicted aid openings related to aid and humanitarian.
Watch for strikes or incidents affecting city. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Americas
Haiti — gangs vs. state, international response
Baseline: Neutral context on Haiti — gangs vs. state, international response outlines principal actors, locations, and recent developments for reference.
The summary favors concise baselines suitable for a daily brief and avoids speculative framing to keep focus on operational dynamics. Source
Constraints: Logistics and movement remain affected by aid.
Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Watch: Watch for deconflicted aid openings related to aid.
Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Mexico — cartel fragmentation and violence
Baseline: The Mexican drug war is an ongoing asymmetric armed conflict between the Mexican government and various drug trafficking syndicates. When the Mexican military intervened in 2006, the government's main objective was to reduce drug-related violence.
The Mexican government has asserted that its primary focus is dismantling the cartels and preventing drug trafficking. The conflict has been described as the Mexican theater of the global war on drugs, as led by the United States federal government. Source
Constraints: Logistics and movement remain affected by port, border, and road.
Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Watch: Watch for strikes or incidents affecting port and border.
Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Colombia — government vs. ELN and other armed groups
Baseline: The Colombian conflict began on May 27, 1964, and is a low-intensity asymmetric war between the government of Colombia, far-right paramilitary groups, crime syndicates and far-left guerrilla groups fighting each other to increase their influence in Colombian territory. Some of the most important international contributors to the Colombian conflict include multinational corporations, the United States, Cuba, and the drug trafficking industry.
Overview continues for Colombia — government vs. ELN and other armed groups. Source
Constraints: Logistics and movement remain affected by port.
Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
Watch: Watch for movement on talks.
Watch for strikes or incidents affecting port. Further updates will hinge on publicly reported developments captured in major wire and broadcaster feeds.
