Africa
Sudan — SAF vs RSF
Baseline: The SAF and RSF remain locked in urban and rural clashes across Darfur, Khartoum, and Kordofan. Over 1,000 people died in Tarasin village after a catastrophic landslide, underscoring the compound disaster.
Constraints: Communications blackouts and flood-damaged roads limit reporting and aid. International mediation attempts have stalled, and relief funding gaps are widening.
Watch: Expect worsening famine risks if aid corridors are not secured. Flash floods may further isolate contested zones.
DR Congo (East) — Government and allies vs M23 and other groups
Baseline: Congolese forces and UN contingents skirmish with M23 rebels near Rutshuru and Nyiragongo, while displacement grows around Goma.
Constraints: Mountain terrain and persistent rains impede logistics. Regional mediation by EAC states has not reversed frontline shifts.
Watch: Tensions remain high over critical supply roads into Goma. Any rebel push toward the city could trigger mass civilian flight.
Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) — State forces vs JNIM/IS-Sahel
Baseline: Armed groups continue to launch ambushes and IED strikes in Liptako-Gourma. Military patrols remain stretched thin.
Constraints: Political isolation of juntas limits international aid. Insecurity has forced market closures and curtailed NGO presence.
Watch: Increased targeting of rural communes on market days is anticipated. Risk of spillover into coastal West Africa remains.
Cameroon (Anglophone regions) — Government vs separatists
Baseline: Sporadic firefights and road ambushes continue in the Northwest and Southwest. Armed groups enforce lockdowns.
Constraints: Road travel remains risky, limiting school attendance and economic activity. Aid convoys face unpredictable checkpoints.
Watch: Violence around major towns may rise as groups seek to disrupt national dialogue attempts.
Middle East
Gaza — Israel vs Hamas
Baseline: Israeli jets and artillery continue intense bombardments, killing dozens, while Hamas maintains rocket fire from urban areas.
Constraints: Blocked crossings and restricted fuel imports slow relief. Hospitals are overrun and operating without stable electricity.
Watch: New ceasefire talks may hinge on hostages. Expanded Israeli ground raids could escalate further civilian casualties.
West Bank and Jerusalem — Israeli forces vs Palestinian militants
Baseline: Gunmen killed six civilians near a Jerusalem bus stop. Israeli raids in Ramallah continue amid heightened tension.
Constraints: Local unrest and curfews hinder movement. Affiliation of attackers remains unclear, but major groups praised the attack.
Watch: Security sweeps may provoke new clashes in the West Bank, risking escalation into broader unrest.
Syria — Government and allies vs opposition and IS cells
Baseline: Syrian regime positions in Idlib exchanged shelling with rebel groups, while IS cells struck convoys in the desert corridor.
Constraints: Russia’s air support remains decisive but stretched by Ukraine commitments. Civilian returns remain minimal.
Watch: Expect further IS activity in Homs desert. Idlib frontline remains prone to rapid flare-ups.
Europe and Caucasus
Ukraine — Ukraine vs Russia
Baseline: Russian drone and missile strikes targeted eastern urban centers, killing civilians. Ukrainian defenses held lines in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.
Constraints: Damage to power infrastructure curtails supply. Western sanctions squeeze Russia’s economy but have not shifted strategy.
Watch: Russia may escalate with missile barrages as winter approaches. Ukraine seeks more air defense support.
Armenia and Azerbaijan — Post-Karabakh border tension
Baseline: Sporadic patrol incidents continue along the border. Engineering works near Lachin corridor draw complaints.
Constraints: Diplomatic channels remain fragile. Border civilians face restrictions on crossings.
Watch: Monitoring of de facto boundaries remains critical. Local flare-ups could derail peace talks.
Asia Pacific
Myanmar — Military vs resistance forces
Baseline: Fighting continues across Chin and Shan states. Resistance groups claim control of some transport corridors.
Constraints: Junta relies on airpower and artillery but faces overstretch. Aid access is heavily restricted.
Watch: Urban raids and airstrikes expected to intensify. Ethnic militias may gain leverage on key trade routes.
Pakistan (Northwest) — Security forces vs militant groups
Baseline: Attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province persist. Counterterror raids are ongoing in border districts.
Constraints: Rugged terrain hampers patrols. Cross-border activity complicates operations with Afghanistan.
Watch: Militants may increase bombings targeting police and military outposts. Civilian casualties risk rising.
South China Sea — Philippines vs China
Baseline: Confrontations between coast guard ships continue near disputed reefs. Manila protests recent blockades.
Constraints: Risk of collision and water-cannon incidents persists. Diplomacy through ASEAN is slow.
Watch: Escalation possible if military escorts accompany resupply missions. Expect further confrontations this month.
Americas
Haiti — Police vs armed groups
Baseline: Armed groups continue to contest neighborhoods in Port-au-Prince. Police raids free some districts but remain limited in scope.
Constraints: Shortages of ammunition and vehicles hamper police effectiveness. IDP shelters are over capacity.
Watch: Renewed blockades on main highways risk cutting off aid flows to the capital.
Mexico — Security forces vs cartels
Baseline: Gunfights erupted in Michoacán and Guerrero states. Federal troops deployed to stabilize hotspots.
Constraints: Cartel mobility outpaces state security. Civilians face displacement during firefights.
Watch: Expect more roadblocks and abductions on key highways. Risks to journalists remain high.
Colombia — Government vs ELN and FARC dissidents
Baseline: ELN militants clashed with state forces in rural Norte de Santander. Dissident FARC units remain active in Cauca.
Constraints: Peace negotiations continue, but violence undermines confidence. Remote geography complicates monitoring.
Watch: Upcoming talks could stall if attacks persist. Rural communities remain vulnerable to displacement.
