Africa
Sudan — SAF vs RSF in Khartoum–Omdurman
Baseline. Urban fighting between Sudan’s Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues in the capital area, with recent RSF drone strikes damaging the Al-Markhiyat substation in Omdurman and triggering power cuts across parts of the tri-city.
Constraints. Repeated outages and damage to transmission nodes hinder hospital operations and communications, while shifting front lines and ad hoc checkpoints limit aid access and civilian movement in Khartoum–Omdurman.
Watch. Expect further RSF targeting of power and logistics nodes around the capital and possible SAF reprisals on suspected RSF supply routes from Darfur and the west.
DR Congo — Government vs M23 (North Kivu)
Baseline. Rights monitors report mass killings by M23 near Virunga National Park as clashes persist around Rutshuru, Masisi and Nyiragongo. Rebel control and checkpoints continue to fragment state authority in North Kivu.
Constraints. Displacement into Goma strains services; ambush risks on key roads and the drawdown of MONUSCO complicate convoy security and protection efforts.
Watch. Risks include M23 pushes toward Goma’s northern approaches, further abuses against civilians, and disruption of supply lines into the provincial capital.
Somalia — Federal Govt & Partners vs al-Shabaab
Baseline. U.S. and partner forces reported incoming indirect fire near Kismayo as al-Shabaab maintains insurgent activity across Jubaland and central regions, including harassment of forward bases and urban targets.
Constraints. IED contamination, militant checkpoints, and seasonal road degradation restrict aid flows and complicate security force mobility; information operations by the group cloud incident verification.
Watch. Expect follow-on precision strikes and raids against facilitation networks in Lower Juba, with potential militant retaliation via bombings or assassinations in urban centers.
Middle East
Gaza — Israel vs Hamas
Baseline. Israel has intensified airstrikes in Gaza City as mediation efforts continue; residents in some districts refuse evacuation amid repeated bombardments and localized ground operations.
Constraints. Dense urban terrain, displacement, and aid access shortfalls complicate evacuation and relief, while negotiations remain fragile amid political divisions and prisoner-exchange demands.
Watch. Indicators include a surge in ground incursions, changes to evacuation orders, and any breakthrough on ceasefire/hostage arrangements that could pause operations.
Lebanon–Israel — IDF vs Hezbollah
Baseline. Cross-border hostilities persist at a reduced but volatile tempo; recent rights reporting documents extensive destruction to homes, farms, and civilian infrastructure across southern Lebanon from prior operations.
Constraints. UXO/IED contamination, damaged farmland, and security risks limit humanitarian access and returns to border communities; seasonal harvests face disruption.
Watch. Retaliatory cycles linked to events in Gaza or Syria could widen the theater; monitoring needed for rocket fire depth and IDF strike patterns near border villages.
Yemen/Red Sea — Israel & Houthis
Baseline. Israel’s recent strikes around Sanaa killed dozens as Yemen’s Houthis continue missile and drone activity tied to the wider regional confrontation and Red Sea shipping.
Constraints. Dispersed launch sites and rugged terrain complicate counter-strikes; dense civilian areas around Sanaa heighten collateral risks and casualty totals.
Watch. Additional Houthi launches toward maritime traffic and Israeli targets are likely; sanctions and mediation efforts may shift tempo but not remove capability.
Europe and Caucasus
Ukraine — Russia’s Invasion
Baseline. Ukrainian long-range drones struck Russia’s Kirishi oil refinery in Leningrad region, sparking a fire at one of the country’s largest energy facilities as Kyiv sustains its deep-strike campaign.
Constraints. Russian air defenses and EW complicate strike effectiveness; Moscow’s fuel supply stresses and export curbs shape responses and domestic market stability.
Watch. Further drone and missile operations against energy infrastructure are likely ahead of winter, alongside reciprocal Russian strikes on Ukrainian power nodes.
Armenia–Azerbaijan — Normalization Track
Baseline. The sides have completed and publicized a draft peace text, but signature remains pending amid disputes over modalities and domestic politics.
Constraints. Verification, border delimitation, and monitoring arrangements are unresolved; public skepticism and security incidents risk eroding momentum.
Watch. Signals from border commissions and third-party facilitators will indicate whether implementation can proceed or stall into renewed tensions.
Kosovo–Serbia — Northern Kosovo Tensions
Baseline. The United States suspended its Strategic Dialogue with Kosovo, citing actions that heightened instability in Serb-majority northern municipalities and stalled governance after February’s elections.
Constraints. Fragile policing and municipal operations persist in the north; EU conditionality and prior measures continue to weigh on Pristina.
Watch. Movement on the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities and protest dynamics at crossings will shape near-term escalation risks.
Asia Pacific
Myanmar — Military vs Ethnic Armed Groups (Rakhine)
Baseline. An airstrike in Kyauktaw township hit two private schools, killing at least 18 people—mostly students—amid Arakan Army territorial gains and expanding conflict in Rakhine.
Constraints. Internet and phone disruptions, access denials, and ongoing fighting impede casualty verification and limit humanitarian delivery to affected townships.
Watch. Potential escalations around AA-held towns and reprisals against civilian infrastructure remain high-risk triggers in coming days.
South China Sea — China vs Philippines (Maritime)
Baseline. China’s military warned Manila against “provocations” following U.S.–Japan–Philippines drills in the Philippine EEZ, underscoring persistent risk around contested features.
Constraints. Overlapping claims, coast-guard and militia presence, and competing legal interpretations heighten collision and escalation risks.
Watch. The next resupply attempt to Second Thomas Shoal and any water-cannoning or ramming around key reefs will be immediate flashpoints.
Taiwan Strait — PLA Activities vs Taiwan
Baseline. PLA air and naval activity around Taiwan remains elevated, with frequent median-line crossings and large multi-axis patterns tracked by Taiwan’s defense ministry.
Constraints. Continuous ADIZ monitoring, intercepts, and readiness demands stress Taiwan’s forces; exercises can surge with limited warning tied to political signals.
Watch. Indicators include expanded drills, missile overflights, or synchronized air-sea operations in response to diplomatic events or high-level visits.
Americas
Haiti — Gangs vs State & Communities
Baseline. The U.N. condemned a reported massacre in Labodrie, north of Port-au-Prince, where over 40 people were killed amid a widening geographic spread of gang violence.
Constraints. Police capacity, blocked roads, and states of emergency hamper response and protection; displacement and access constraints complicate relief.
Watch. Possible gang moves toward Arcahaie and reprisals tied to leadership shifts or inter-gang rivalries could spark additional attacks.
Colombia — Govt vs ELN
Baseline. After talks were suspended earlier this year, officials have kept the door open to negotiations with ELN while localized clashes persist in border and rural zones.
Constraints. Fragmented fronts, illicit economies, and weak state presence complicate ceasefire compliance and verification; spillovers affect civilian safety.
Watch. Signals of a new round—venues, guarantor roles, or unilateral de-escalation moves—will indicate whether the process can restart.
Venezuela–Guyana/Caribbean — Regional Tensions
Baseline. U.S. F-35s arrived in Puerto Rico amid heightened frictions with Venezuela, while Caracas accused a U.S. warship of detaining a Venezuelan fishing vessel for hours in its waters.
Constraints. ICJ proceedings over the Essequibo dispute and regional diplomacy temper overt escalation, but military signaling and close encounters at sea and in the air persist.
Watch. Additional U.S. deployments, Venezuelan air/naval intercepts, and any moves affecting Guyana’s offshore oil blocks remain key flashpoints.
