AFRICA
Sudan — SAF vs RSF (Khartoum, Darfur, Kordofan)
Baseline. Urban combat and shifting control persist across parts of Omdurman and Khartoum’s periphery, while RSF and allied groups contest corridors in Darfur and southern Kordofan. Population movements continue toward comparatively calmer districts and border areas.
Constraints. Fuel scarcity, destroyed crossings, and ad hoc checkpoints slow aid convoys and commercial traffic. Patchy telecoms impede coordination between clinics and relief hubs.
Watch. Control of arterial bridges and the Omdurman–Bahri belt remains a key indicator of momentum. Darfur town perimeters are susceptible to sudden raids and reprisals.
DR Congo (East) — Government and allies vs M23 and other armed groups (North and South Kivu)
Baseline. Clashes continue on approaches to Goma and Rutshuru, with sporadic shelling near key hills and road junctions. Displacement swells around urban centers and IDP sites.
Constraints. Terrain, mud, and intermittent UAV or artillery use complicate overland resupply. Checkpoint “taxes” and road closures disrupt food and fuel flows.
Watch. Any advances along RN2 or toward Sake and Nyiragongo could quickly affect civilian corridors and aid staging areas.
Somalia — Federal forces and allies vs al-Shabaab
Baseline. Security operations target militant cells in central and southern regions, while al-Shabaab retains capability for complex attacks and IEDs along key roads and in district centers.
Constraints. IED contamination, blown culverts, and insurgent checkpoints slow civilian travel and aid routing. Air operations remain weather dependent.
Watch. Pressure on supply routes to regional capitals may prompt retaliatory VBIED or IED activity; urban soft targets and government facilities remain at risk.
MIDDLE EAST
Gaza and southern Israel — Israel vs Hamas and allied groups
Baseline. Air and artillery strikes alternate with sporadic rocket or mortar fire as ground activity shapes access and services day to day. Evacuation guidance and alerts fluctuate by neighborhood.
Constraints. Entry approvals, damaged roads, and unexploded ordnance impede aid distribution. Power and water infrastructure face recurring interruptions.
Watch. Concentrations of forces near dense urban clusters or renewed long-range launches could widen strike scope; ceasefire talks and corridor announcements can quickly alter movement rules.
Lebanon and northern Israel — Israeli forces vs Hezbollah
Baseline. Artillery exchanges, ATGM fire, and drone overflights occur intermittently along the frontier. Villages manage rolling evacuations and shelter protocols during flare-ups.
Constraints. No-go areas and UXO complicate farming and utility repairs. Media and monitor access is restricted in forward sectors.
Watch. Escalation risks rise if guided munitions strike populated areas or critical infrastructure; cross-border infiltration attempts would prompt broader retaliation.
Yemen — Government and allies vs Houthi movement
Baseline. Front lines remain mostly static but punctuated by shelling and drone or missile incidents. Port access and road security vary by governorate, shaping commercial flows and aid operations.
Constraints. Checkpoint regimes differ widely; damaged bridges and arterial roads slow overland aid. Dust and seasonal weather reduce aviation windows.
Watch. Increased drone or missile activity near ports and energy sites could trigger rapid access restrictions; local de-escalation talks may shift travel windows with little notice.
EUROPE and CAUCASUS
Ukraine — Ukraine vs Russia
Baseline. Drone, missile, and artillery strikes continue on eastern and southern axes alongside ground contacts near contested settlements. Urban centers face recurring air alerts.
Constraints. Air defense coverage and electronic warfare shape UAV tempo; debris clearance and substation damage affect power stability. Curfew regimes complicate night movements.
Watch. Upticks in long-range salvos around symbolic dates are possible; cross-river assaults or sudden salient expansions would indicate attempts to reset lines.
Armenia and Azerbaijan — Post-Karabakh and border tensions
Baseline. Patrol incidents and engineering works occur intermittently along sensitive sectors. Talks continue sporadically amid local complaints about access and demarcation.
Constraints. Limited crossing points and new fencing alter traditional routes for farmers and herders; monitors face access limits in forward areas.
Watch. Construction near contested landmarks can prompt standoffs; any casualty incident risks rapid local escalation.
Kosovo (north) — Kosovo Police vs Serb paramilitary elements (sporadic)
Baseline. Security posture remains elevated in northern municipalities, with targeted operations yielding occasional arrests and weapons seizures.
Constraints. Temporary roadblocks and ID checks slow traffic; international patrols and liaison mechanisms limit access to some sites.
Watch. Local election or license-plate enforcement milestones can trigger protests and clashes; any armed incident near municipal buildings elevates risk quickly.
ASIA PACIFIC
Myanmar — Anti-junta forces vs Tatmadaw and allied militias
Baseline. Multi-front fighting spans border states and central corridors, with towns changing hands and highways intermittently blocked. Air and artillery strikes accompany ground pushes.
Constraints. Bridge demolitions, landslides, and UXO hinder overland movement. Banking and telecom disruptions complicate procurement and evacuation.
Watch. Seizure of township headquarters or customs posts would signal deeper control shifts; cross-border spillover risks rise during major offensives.
Pakistan (northwest) — State forces vs militant groups
Baseline. Counter-terror operations and IED incidents persist in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining districts; checkpoints and cordon-and-search activities recur after attacks.
Constraints. Road closures after blasts delay ambulances and commerce; curfews and telecom throttling often follow major incidents.
Watch. Police stations, markets, and convoys remain primary targets; attack patterns may cluster around religious or political events.
South China Sea — Philippines vs China (maritime standoffs)
Baseline. Coast guards and maritime militias continue close-proximity maneuvers around disputed features; ramming, water-cannoning, and blocking incidents recur.
Constraints. Weather, sea state, and notices to airmen and mariners shape patrol patterns; legal and diplomatic actions influence rules of engagement on scene.
Watch. Any collision causing casualties or loss of a resupply cargo would raise escalation risks; new barriers or net obstructions would signal tightening control.
AMERICAS
Haiti — Police and community self-defence vs armed groups (Port-au-Prince and corridors)
Baseline. Armed groups contest neighborhoods and highways linking the capital with outlying departments. Security operations target strongholds and kidnap-for-ransom cells.
Constraints. Roadblocks, burned vehicles, and sporadic gunfire limit ambulance access; fuel availability and port operations affect food distribution.
Watch. Pushes to clear main arteries can prompt counter-attacks in adjacent districts; attacks on police stations or prisons carry outsized impact.
Colombia — Government vs ELN and FARC dissidents
Baseline. Talks and military pressure proceed in parallel. Rural departments with illicit economies see intermittent clashes, road blockades, and extortion threats.
Constraints. River levels, landslides, and limited airstrips constrain mobility; security escorts are often required for road travel in hotspots.
Watch. Breakdown of local truces or leadership disputes can trigger rapid skirmishes; attacks on energy or transport infrastructure have outsized effects.
Mexico — Security forces vs organized crime (several states)
Baseline. Armed confrontations, roadblocks, and abductions occur episodically, often after high-profile arrests or inter-cartel disputes. Federal deployments surge in response clusters.
Constraints. Route closures, burned freight, and vehicle theft disrupt trucking and intercity buses; local reporting can be limited where media face threats.
Watch. Sudden spikes in arson or bus hijackings indicate turf contests; operations near border crossings or ports may provoke diversionary attacks.
